What expected value means
Expected value (EV) is what you'd win or lose on average if you placed the same bet many times. A +EV bet makes money over time and a -EV bet loses money over time, even though any single bet can go either way.
Expected value calculator
Enter the odds and how often you think the bet wins. See whether it's a +EV bet, your edge, and what you'd expect to make over time.
Expected value$10.00
Edge10.00%
Break-even win chance45.45%
Fair odds for your chance+100 · 2.00
Positive EV: over many bets like this you'd expect a profit. Any single bet can still go either way.
For information only. Results use the odds you enter and don't include any sportsbook rules or limits.
How it works
EV calculator: the basics
How it's worked out
EV = (win chance × profit if it wins) − (lose chance × stake). A $100 bet at +120 that wins 50% of the time has an EV of (0.5 × $120) − (0.5 × $100) = +$10.
Your edge
Edge is EV as a share of your stake. It's positive when your win chance is higher than the implied probability of the odds.
Where the win chance comes from
Your estimate can come from your own model, or from no-vig prices at a sharp sportsbook. The calculator is only as good as that estimate.
For cappers
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FAQ
EV calculator questions
What is a +EV bet?
A bet where your chance of winning is higher than the odds imply, so it's expected to make a profit over many bets.
How do I find my win probability?
Many bettors use the no-vig fair odds from a sharp market as their estimate. Use the no-vig calculator to work them out.
Does +EV mean I'll win?
No. It means you'd expect a profit over a large number of similar bets. Any single bet can still lose.