What implied probability is
Implied probability is the chance of winning that the odds suggest. It's 1 divided by the decimal odds: 2.50 (+150) implies 40%, and 1.91 (-110) implies 52.4%.
Implied probability calculator
Enter odds for one outcome to see the win chance they imply. Add every outcome in a market, even a long futures list, to see the sportsbook's margin and each fair chance.
Odds 140.0% · 2.50
Odds 234.5% · 2.90
Odds 330.3% · 3.30
Total implied (book)104.79%
Sportsbook margin4.57%
Odds 1 fair chance38.2% · +162
Odds 2 fair chance32.9% · +204
Odds 3 fair chance28.9% · +246
For information only. Results use the odds you enter and don't include any sportsbook rules or limits.
How it works
Implied probability calculator: the basics
Why a market adds up to more than 100%
Add up the implied chances of every outcome and you'll get more than 100%. The extra is the sportsbook's margin, also called the overround or vig.
Fair chances
Scaling each outcome down so the market adds up to exactly 100% gives the fair chance of each. That's a better estimate of what the sportsbook really thinks.
Futures and big fields
Futures markets, like championship winners or golf tournaments, often carry big margins of 20% or more. Enter every runner to see exactly how much.
Related guides: How to read betting odds
Terms used here: Implied probability · Overround · Fair odds · Full glossary
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FAQ
Implied probability calculator questions
How do you calculate implied probability?
Convert the odds to decimal, then divide 1 by them. For American odds: positive odds, 100 ÷ (odds + 100); negative odds, odds ÷ (odds + 100), ignoring the minus sign.
What is the implied probability of -110?
52.38%. That's also the win rate you need at -110 to break even.
What is the implied probability of +200?
33.3%. Odds of +200 (3.00 decimal, 2/1 fractional) suggest the outcome wins about one time in three.
Is implied probability the real chance of winning?
Not exactly. It includes the sportsbook's margin, so it slightly overstates each outcome's chance. Remove the margin to get the fair chance.