Futures are long-term bets: who wins the Super Bowl, the MVP, a team's season win total or the Premier League title.
The payouts can be big, but your money is tied up for months, and futures markets usually carry a large overround, often 20% to 30% across the whole field.
Bettors with a future that's close to paying out sometimes hedge it to lock in a profit.
How it works
Futures are bets on outcomes decided weeks or months later. The most common are championship winners, division winners, player awards and season win totals. In the UK they're called outrights, and in horse racing ante-post bets.
Odds change throughout the season as injuries, trades and results come in. Getting a team at a big price before the season can look brilliant if they improve, which is why some bettors treat futures like buying early.
The downsides are real, though:
- Big margins. Add up the implied probability of every team to win a title and it's often far above 100%. The overround can be 20% to 30%.
- Tied-up money. Your stake sits with the sportsbook all season and can't be used elsewhere.
- Long waits. A bet placed in August might not settle until February.
Bettors holding a future that's close to paying out often think about whether to hedge it. Comparing prices across sportsbooks matters even more than usual with futures, because the differences between books are often large.
Examples
- Example 1
A $50 bet on a team to win the championship at +1200 wins $600 if they do. The implied probability of +1200 is about 7.7%.
- Example 2
Season win total over 9.5 at -120: a $60 bet wins $50 if the team wins 10 or more games.
Common questions
When do futures bets pay out?
When the event is decided, which can be months after you bet. A championship future settles when the champion is crowned.
Can you cash out a futures bet?
Why are futures odds so high?
Many teams are competing for one outcome, so each one is unlikely. Sportsbooks also build a large margin into futures markets.