Your break-even win rate is the implied probability of the odds you bet: 1 ÷ decimal odds. At -110 it's 52.38%, at +100 it's 50%, at +150 it's 40%.
Win more often than that and you profit over time. Win less and you lose, even if you win most of your bets.
It's why a 50% win rate at -110 still loses money: the vig means you need to win slightly more than half.
How it works
Every price has a break-even win rate built into it. The shorter the odds, the more often you need to win.
| Odds | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| -200 | 66.7% |
| -150 | 60.0% |
| -120 | 54.5% |
| -110 | 52.4% |
| -105 | 51.2% |
| +100 | 50.0% |
| +120 | 45.5% |
| +150 | 40.0% |
| +200 | 33.3% |
The table shows why the vig matters so much. On a true coin flip, -110 asks you to win 52.4% of the time instead of 50%. That 2.4-point gap is what bettors have to overcome before they make a cent.
It also shows why line shopping is worth the effort. Moving from -110 to -105 lowers the bar from 52.4% to 51.2%.
Break-even rates apply to combined bets too. A two-leg parlay at -110 per leg needs to hit about 27.4% of the time, which means each leg winning about 52.4%. The break-even calculator works it out for any price.
Examples
- Example 1
At -110 you need to win 52.4 bets out of every 100 that don't push.
- Example 2
A bettor who wins 53% of bets at -110 is only 0.6 points above break-even. Over time that's an ROI of about +1.2%, a thin edge that variance can easily hide.
- Example 3
A two-leg parlay at -110 per leg pays 3.64 in decimal odds, so it needs to win 27.4% of the time to break even.
- Example 4
Someone betting mostly +150 underdogs only needs to win 40% of the time. Winning 42% at that price is a solid profitable record.
Common questions
How do you calculate break-even percentage in betting?
Divide 1 by the decimal odds. For American odds, a minus price like -110 is 110 ÷ (110 + 100) = 52.4%, and a plus price like +150 is 100 ÷ (150 + 100) = 40%.
Why is break-even 52.4% and not 50%?
Because at -110 you risk $110 to win $100. The sportsbook's margin means you need to win slightly more than half your bets just to finish level.