Win rate is wins divided by wins plus losses. A push doesn't count either way.
On its own, win rate tells you little. 60% sounds great, but at -200 it loses money, because the break even rate is 66.7%. 45% sounds poor, but at +150 it's profitable.
Always judge win rate next to the average odds, or look at ROI instead.
How it works
Win rate is the number most people quote first, and the one most likely to mislead. It only tells you how often you win, not how much you win when you do.
Two bettors can both win 55% of their bets and end up in very different places. One bets mostly at -110 and makes a small profit. The other bets favorites at -200 and loses money steadily, because each win pays half the stake while each loss costs all of it.
That's why win rate should always sit next to the average odds. Compare it with the break even rate for those odds: the gap between the two is what actually makes money. Many cappers show win rate alongside ROI and units for exactly this reason.
In the UK, win rate is often called strike rate, especially in horse racing, where a 25% strike rate on underdog prices can be excellent.
A few more tips:
- Leave pushes and voids out of the count.
- Don't judge a win rate on a few dozen bets. variance can move it by several points either way.
- Track win rate by sport and bet type to see where you actually do well.
Examples
- Example 1
A record of 30 wins, 25 losses and 3 pushes has a win rate of 30 ÷ 55 = 54.5%. The pushes are left out.
- Example 2
Winning 48% of bets at an average of +120 is profitable. The break-even rate at +120 is 45.5%, and the expected ROI is about +5.6%.
- Example 3
Winning 60% of bets at -150 only breaks even, because 60% is exactly the break-even rate at that price.
Read more: How to track your betting record
Common questions
What is a good win rate in sports betting?
At standard -110 odds, anything consistently above 52.4% is profitable, and 55% or more over hundreds of bets is very strong. At other odds the target changes, so compare your win rate with the break-even rate for your average price.
Why am I losing money with a winning record?
Your win rate is probably below the break-even rate for the odds you bet. Betting heavy favorites means you can win most of your bets and still lose overall, because the losses cost more than the wins pay.
What's the difference between win rate and strike rate?
Nothing. Strike rate is the UK name, common in horse racing and football tipping. Both mean the share of bets that win.