Key numbers are margins of victory that come up far more often than others. In the NFL, around 15% of games are decided by exactly 3 points and around 9% by exactly 7, thanks to field goals and touchdowns.
That makes half a point either side of a key number valuable. -2.5 is a much better bet than -3.5 on the same team, which is why the hook matters.
teaser bettors look for lines that cross both 3 and 7.
How it works
Key numbers exist because of how points are scored. In the NFL, field goals are worth 3 and touchdowns with the extra point are worth 7, so margins of 3, 7, 6, 10 and 14 come up more than others. Roughly 15% of NFL games end with a 3-point margin and around 9% with 7.
That changes the value of every half point:
| Your line | Favorite wins by 3 |
|---|---|
| Underdog +2.5 | You lose |
| Underdog +3 | push, stake returned |
| Underdog +3.5 | You win |
College football has similar key numbers, but they're weaker because scoring varies more. In the NBA, margins are spread out, so no single number matters much. Low-scoring sports like hockey and baseball use run lines and puck lines of 1.5 instead.
This is why the hook around 3 and 7 is so valuable, and why teaser bettors look for lines that cross both. You can price this up with the teaser calculator.
Examples
- Example 1
You like the underdog. One book offers +3 and another +2.5 at the same price. If the favorite wins by exactly 3, +3 gets your stake back and +2.5 loses.
- Example 2
A 6-point teaser on a -8.5 favorite moves it to -2.5. That single move crosses both 7 and 3.
Common questions
What are the key numbers in NFL betting?
3 and 7 are the most important, followed by numbers like 6, 10 and 14 that come from common combinations of field goals and touchdowns.
Are there key numbers in the NBA?
Not really. Basketball scores are high and margins are spread out, so no single number comes up much more than the ones around it.