The closing line is the last price before betting closes. By then, the market has taken in nearly every piece of news and a lot of money from sharp bettors.
That's why it's widely seen as the most accurate price in a market. It isn't perfect, but it's very hard to beat consistently.
Comparing your odds with the closing line gives you closing line value, one of the best measures of whether you're betting well.
How it works
The closing line is set by the market, not by one sportsbook's opinion. Every bet placed before kickoff nudges the price, and the biggest nudges come from bettors with a strong track record. By the time a game starts, most of the useful information is already in the number.
That makes it a useful yardstick. You can't judge a single bet by whether it won, because one result is mostly luck. But you can judge it by whether you got a better price than the close.
A few things to know:
- It varies by sportsbook. Most bettors use a sharp, high-limit book or an average across the market as "the" close.
- Remove the margin first. Comparing against the fair odds version of the close is more accurate than using the raw price with the vig still in it.
- Thin markets close less reliably. Lower leagues and niche prop bet markets don't attract enough money to make the close as accurate as an NFL side.
Comparing your price with the close is called closing line value.
Examples
- Example 1
You bet the Celtics -4 on Monday. By tip-off on Wednesday they close at -6. You got 2 points better than the final market price, whatever the result.
- Example 2
A game closes at -150 / +130. Implied, that's 60.0% and 43.5%. With the margin removed, the fair chances are about 58.0% and 42.0%.
Read more: What is closing line value (CLV)?
Common questions
Where can I find the closing line?
Note the odds at a major sportsbook just before the game starts. Odds comparison sites also show closing prices for most big games.
Does the closing line ever get it wrong?
Often, on individual games. It's accurate on average over many games, which is why beating it consistently is hard.
Is the closing line the same as the final score?
No. The closing line is the last price before the game, such as -3.5. The final score is what actually happened.