The favorite is the side more likely to win in the sportsbook's view. In American odds it has a minus sign, like -150. In decimal odds it's below 2.00.
Favorites win more often but pay less. A -200 favorite needs to win two out of every three bets just to break even.
Heavy favorites are sometimes called chalk. In a point spread bet, the favorite has to win by more than the spread.
How it works
Favorites are priced to reflect how likely the sportsbook thinks they are to win, plus a margin. The shorter the price, the more often they need to win just for you to break even.
| Price | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| -120 | 54.5% |
| -150 | 60.0% |
| -200 | 66.7% |
| -300 | 75.0% |
| -500 | 83.3% |
A common mistake is assuming that because favorites win most of the time, betting them is safer. They do win more often, but one loss can cancel out several wins. At -300, a single loss wipes out the profit from three wins.
Popular favorites can also be overpriced, because public bettors like backing them. Some bettors look for spots where a favorite is priced too short and take the underdog instead, or bet the point spread rather than the moneyline.
In the UK the spelling is favourite, and a heavy favorite is often called "odds-on".
Examples
- Example 1
A $90 bet on a -300 favorite wins $30 profit.
- Example 2
To win $100 on a -250 favorite, you have to risk $250. If it loses, that's two and a half times the potential profit gone.
- Example 3
A team at -150 needs to win 60% of the time for the bet to break even over the long run.
Common questions
What does it mean when odds are negative?
Negative odds show the favorite. The number is how much you need to bet to win $100, so -150 means risking $150 to win $100.
Do favorites win more often?
Yes, by definition they're the more likely winner. But they pay less, so they need to win more often to be profitable.
Is it better to bet the favorite or the underdog?
Neither is better in general. It depends on whether the price is better than the real chance of winning, which is the idea behind expected value.