Closing line value (CLV) measures whether you beat the closing line. Bet a team at -105 that closes at -125 and you got positive CLV, whether they win or lose.
The simplest calculation is your decimal odds divided by the closing decimal odds, minus 1. -105 (1.952) against a -125 close (1.800) is +8.4%.
Results take thousands of bets to prove much because of variance. Consistently positive CLV is a much earlier sign of a real edge.
How it works
CLV works because the closing line is usually the sharpest price available. If you keep getting better numbers than it, you're likely spotting value before the rest of the market does.
You can measure it in two ways:
| Market | How to measure CLV |
|---|---|
| Moneyline or odds | Compare your decimal odds with the closing decimal odds |
| Spreads and totals | Count the points you gained, such as -2.5 vs a -3.5 close |
Points around key numbers are worth more than others. Getting -2.5 when the close is -3.5 matters far more than getting -9.5 when it closes at -10.5.
Common mistakes: comparing against a soft book's close instead of a sharp one, ignoring the vig, and judging CLV over a handful of bets. Like results, it needs a decent sample before it means much.
For followers, CLV only helps if you bet at the posted price. If a pick moves before you get it on, the value is gone.
Examples
- Example 1
You bet at +120. It closes at +100. You beat the closing line by about 10%.
- Example 2
You bet +150 (2.50). It closes at +130 (2.30). CLV = 2.50 ÷ 2.30 − 1 = about +8.7%.
- Example 3
You bet -110 (1.909). It closes at -105 (1.952). CLV = 1.909 ÷ 1.952 − 1 = about −2.2%. The market moved against you.
- Example 4
You take the Bills -2.5. They close at -3.5. You gained a full point, and it crosses 3, the most common NFL winning margin.
Read more: What is closing line value (CLV)?
Common questions
Is positive CLV the same as winning?
No. You can beat the close and still lose the bet. CLV measures the price you got, and over many bets good prices tend to lead to profit.
How many bets do I need to judge CLV?
More than a handful. A few hundred bets give a much clearer picture than a few dozen, though CLV settles down faster than raw results.
Can I track CLV for player props?
Yes, but closing prices in prop markets are less reliable because less money is bet on them, so treat the numbers as a rough guide.